Developers Will Decide the Winners in the AI Race: Mary Meeker
Meeker emphasises that while OpenAI currently leads in consumer AI, the landscape is becoming increasingly competitive.
Venture capitalist and tech analyst Mary Meeker believes developers will be the key force determining which AI companies succeed or fail. In her latest AI Trends report—the first since 2019—Meeker highlighted the unprecedented pace of change driven by generative AI and likened today’s moment to the rise of the internet and mobile computing.
Speaking to Axios, Meeker cited an old Steve Ballmer speech where he repeatedly shouted “developers,” underscoring how crucial technical talent is to a company’s long-term success.
“The companies that get the best developers often win,” she said, noting that this lesson is even more critical in the AI era, where innovation cycles are shorter and competition is global.
With startups and tech giants racing to build advanced models and platforms, Meeker stressed that hiring and retaining top developer talent will define the next wave of AI winners—while laggards risk quick obsolescence.
Additionally, Meeker critiques recent U.S. immigration policies that restrict foreign students from studying domestically, arguing that such measures could hinder innovation.
She advocates for policies that attract global talent, emphasising that America's tech ecosystem has greatly benefited from the contributions of first- and second-generation immigrants.
The comprehensive 340-page document also highlights the unprecedented global adoption of AI technologies, particularly the swift rise of OpenAI's ChatGPT, which has seen significant user growth outside the U.S.
Meeker emphasises that while OpenAI currently leads in consumer AI, the landscape is becoming increasingly competitive.
She notes that the high costs associated with training large language models (LLMs) could make U.S. AI leaders vulnerable to more affordable alternatives emerging from countries like China.
This shift suggests a potential commoditisation of general-purpose LLMs, raising concerns about the sustainability and profitability of these ventures.
Meeker is known for her influential "Internet Trends" reports, which tracked the rise of the web, mobile, and cloud technologies.
Often called the "Queen of the Internet," her insights have shaped investor and industry thinking for decades.
Her reports, rich with data and forward-looking analysis, were considered essential reading in Silicon Valley and helped forecast key digital transformations.